Although not every poll has reported at the time I write this, it seems the Globe and Mail has gone ahead and given the NDP its fourth consecutive majority in Manitoba. And while the popular vote is incredibly close, with the PCs and the NDP separated by less than one percentage point, the NDP received a lot of support from the voters in the provincial capital (in this case, Winnipeg), who sent several of their candidates into office. The PCs barely managed to reduce “one of the biggest majorities in modern Manitoba history” (as per Global Winnipeg), but they couldn’t steal nearly enough seats away from the governing party.
Stop me if this sounds kinda familiar. With the latest polls giving the Liberals a 10-point edge among decided voters, it seems like the Ontario Tories don’t have enough steam to take power from McGuinty. If you switch the Liberals and the NDP around in the Manitoba scenario, you might have a pretty good picture of Thursday’s upcoming results.
Mind you, Ontario has nearly twice as many ridings as Manitoba–and I think our NDP will do better than two seats and 7.5 per cent of the popular vote–but if McGuinty wins another majority, he will owe it to Toronto. As this fancy graphic shows, downtown Torontonians didn’t really vote for Ford, and he hasn’t become any more popular since taking office–if anything, it’s the opposite–which puts the infamous Tory trifecta in serious jeopardy. Sorry Tim Hudak, we’re just not that into you.
One final word from Manitoba, and columnist Roy MacGregor, who just called their election one of the dullest ever:
“Mr. Selinger lacked the charisma, was forced to deal with new economic realities and, of course, would be dealing with the greatest force known in Canadian politics: the joy of putting the boots to those grown complacent in office. There was, apparently, a strong mood for change at one point, soon replaced with a much stronger mood for cheering on the Jets and basking in the best, and longest, summer in memory.”
Sound like anyone we know? Although Toronto didn’t just see its team return after a 15-year absence (Read: Leafs will miss the playoffs again), almost two-thirds of Torontonians would rather watch the Leafs than the election results. Nuff said!
